Work Package 1
Advancing the science of ocean emerging threats
Understanding and responding to emerging ocean threats requires a shift from simply identifying potential future pressures to developing a clearer picture of which threats are most likely to occur, where they may have the greatest impacts, and how they could affect marine ecosystems and human communities.
A threat intelligence approach provides a new way to understand these changing risks. Originally developed in fields such as cybersecurity, threat intelligence combines data, modelling, expert knowledge, and continuous assessment to identify and respond to evolving threats. By adapting this well-established approach to the ocean, OceanSOS will strengthen understanding of how emerging pressures may disrupt the processes that sustain marine biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the benefits oceans provide to society. The threat intelligence approach will examine three key oceanic ecosystem processes relevant to the oceanic food web and biodiversity: bentho-pelagic coupling, the biological carbon pump, and energy transfer throughout marine food webs.
Threat intelligence lifecycle, adapted for oceanic food webs from ThreatDotMedia (2022).
Ocean ecosystems rely on complex connections that transfer energy and nutrients through the food web. Bentho-pelagic coupling describes the exchange of energy, nutrients, and organisms between the seafloor (the benthic environment) and the open water above (the pelagic environment). This connection links deep-sea habitats with surface ocean processes and helps sustain biodiversity across different parts of the ocean. Another essential process is the biological carbon pump, which moves carbon from the surface ocean to the deep sea. Tiny marine organisms, such as phytoplankton, capture carbon through photosynthesis, and this carbon is transferred through the food web as organisms feed, grow, and sink. This process plays a key role in regulating ocean productivity and the global climate system.
Another essential process is the biological carbon pump, which moves carbon from the surface ocean to the deep sea. Tiny marine organisms, such as phytoplankton, capture carbon through photosynthesis, and this carbon is transferred through the food web as organisms feed, grow, and sink. This process plays a key role in regulating ocean productivity and the global climate system.
Another essential process is the biological carbon pump, which moves carbon from the surface ocean to the deep sea. Tiny marine organisms, such as phytoplankton, capture carbon through photosynthesis, and this carbon is transferred through the food web as organisms feed, grow, and sink. This process plays a key role in regulating ocean productivity and the global climate system.
Image Credit: ROV KIEL6000, 2025, GEOMAR
Together, these processes support energy transfer through marine food webs, allowing energy captured at the ocean surface to flow through different organisms, from microscopic plankton to larger predators. Disruptions to these connections can have consequences that extend across ecosystems, affecting biodiversity, ecosystem resilience, and the communities that depend on healthy oceans.
These interconnected processes are particularly vulnerable to changing environmental conditions and increasing human pressures. By focusing on the mesopelagic zone – the region of the ocean between the sunlit surface waters and the deep ocean, where many important organisms connect surface and deep-sea processes – emerging threats can be assessed in relation to their potential impacts on ecosystem stability and human wellbeing.
These interconnected processes are particularly vulnerable to changing environmental conditions and increasing human pressures. By focusing on the mesopelagic zone – the region of the ocean between the sunlit surface waters and the deep ocean, where many important organisms connect surface and deep-sea processes – emerging threats can be assessed in relation to their potential impacts on ecosystem stability and human wellbeing.
Building a comprehensive understanding of future risks requires bringing together multiple sources of knowledge. Scientific observations, models, open-source information, ecosystem assessments, socioeconomic data, and regional expertise will be combined to develop a more complete picture of emerging threat landscapes. Regional workshops will further strengthen this understanding by incorporating expert perspectives, including traditional knowledge where appropriate, to identify and evaluate threats across different regions and timescales.
The resulting threat intelligence framework will provide decision-makers with improved awareness of emerging risks and their potential consequences. By identifying where ecosystems and communities may be most vulnerable, this knowledge will support the development of proactive management approaches, including area-based management tools and environmental impact assessments. It will also contribute to guidance supporting international ocean governance frameworks, including the implementation of the 2023 United Nations Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ Agreement), helping to safeguard ocean ecosystems for present and future generations.
OceanSOS’ work on advancing the science of ocean emerging threats is led by Dr. Daniela Diz at Heriot-Watt University, supported by Dr. Isabelle Ansorge at the University of Cape Town.
The resulting threat intelligence framework will provide decision-makers with improved awareness of emerging risks and their potential consequences. By identifying where ecosystems and communities may be most vulnerable, this knowledge will support the development of proactive management approaches, including area-based management tools and environmental impact assessments. It will also contribute to guidance supporting international ocean governance frameworks, including the implementation of the 2023 United Nations Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ Agreement), helping to safeguard ocean ecosystems for present and future generations.
OceanSOS’ work on advancing the science of ocean emerging threats is led by Dr. Daniela Diz at Heriot-Watt University, supported by Dr. Isabelle Ansorge at the University of Cape Town.
WP1 at a Glance
- Gather emerging threat intelligence for each OceanSOS region to support regional SOS frameworks
- Strengthen institutional capacities for adaptive, ecosystem-based management
- Provide situational awareness to guide area-based management tools (ABMTs) and environmental impact assessments (EIAs) while embedding intra- and intergenerational equity.
- Task 1.1. Threat intelligence (TI) compilation and gap analysis of existing regional data on oceanic food webs.
- Task 1.2. Conduct three regional expert workshops on short-, medium-, and long-term threats to the integrity and functioning of the OceanSOS regions.
- Task 1.3. Development of guidance on precautionary management of emerging threats including ABMTs and EIAs for regional, European, and global decision-makers.
- D1.1: Initial Threat Intelligence Report.
- D1.2: Emerging Threats Workshops Summary Reports.
- D1.3: Think Piece on Equity of Emerging Threats.
- D1.4: Guidance and Policy Briefs for Decision-Makers on Precautionary Measures.
Heriot-Watt University (HWU) & University of Cape Town (UCT)