Ocean ecosystems are shaped by complex interactions between thousands of species, from microscopic organisms near the surface to deep-sea predators thousands of metres below. Understanding how these interconnected communities may respond to climate change and emerging human activities requires approaches that can capture the movement of energy and resources through the entire food web.
Food web models provide a way to explore these connections by representing how organisms interact, how energy moves between different parts of the ecosystem, and how changes in one part of the food web can affect the wider system. By creating a vertically connected model of the ocean, from the surface to the deep seafloor, it becomes possible to investigate how pressures can cascade through marine ecosystems over different timescales.
The food web model developed in this work will provide a detailed picture of the current state of the North Atlantic Current and Evlanov Sea basin Marine Protected Area (NACES MPA) ecosystem, including interactions between organisms living throughout the water column and on the seafloor. Information on species abundance, diets, energy flows, and ecosystem connections will be combined to understand how the system functions today and identify the conditions needed to maintain a healthy and resilient ocean ecosystem.
Beyond describing the present-day ecosystem, the model will be used to explore how ocean food webs may change under different future scenarios. These scenarios will consider the combined effects of climate change, existing fisheries pressures, and potential emerging activities such as mesopelagic fisheries. By testing different levels of disturbance, the model will help identify when ecosystems may approach critical limits beyond which recovery becomes more difficult.
Changes in ocean ecosystems also have important consequences for people. Marine food webs support biodiversity, fisheries, carbon storage, and other benefits that society depends on. Future scenarios will therefore also consider the economic and social implications of ecosystem changes, including potential benefits and costs associated with emerging activities. Particular attention will be given to questions of fairness, including how risks and benefits are distributed between different communities and between present and future generations.
OceanSOS’ work on cumulative and cascading impacts is led by Dr. Rolf Groeneveld at Wageningen University, supported by Dr. Lea-Anne Henry at Mara Consultants Ltd.
- Streamline common multi-stressor assumptions across the threat scenarios.
- Quantify energy flows from plankton to top predators integrating mesopelagic biomass.
- Quantify climate and fisheries impacts on food web stability limits.
- Evaluate economic impacts alongside public perceptions of generational equity.
- Task 4.1. Specifying emerging threat scenarios.
- Task 4.2. Development of a fully integrated surface to seafloor food web model for the NACES MPA.
- Task 4.3. Simulations of trophic impacts and food web stability under existing uses, climate change, and emerging threat scenarios.
- Task 4.4. Distributional equity issues of emerging threat scenarios.
- Task 4.5. Quantify economic impacts of current and emerging threats on climate and tuna and tuna-like fisheries.
- D4.1: Anthropogenic Threat Scenarios.
- D4.2: Ecopath Reference Network.
- D4.3: Survey Results on Fairness and Acceptable Risks of Emerging Threats.
- D4.4: Impacts of Climate Change and Fisheries Threats on the NACES MPA Food Web.
- D4.5: Economic Assessment of Threats and Equity Implications.